We’re not wearing masks everywhere we go anymore, but 16 months after COVID-19 showed up in St. Tammany Parish, it’s still making headlines.
There’s talk of the nasty new Delta variant. There’s talk of vaccine side effects. There’s talk of what things are going to look like this fall – and whether we’ve got another outbreak ahead of us.
In other words: No matter how badly we want to move on, the pandemic isn’t over yet.
(Need proof? Look at the number of COVID inpatients at St. Tammany Health System. Last Thursday, we got down to zero. By Monday (June 28), we had eight inpatients under COVID care.)
To wrap our heads around it all, we recently sat down for a chat with St. Tammany Health System infectious disease guru Dr. Mike Hill to get the straight scoop on the virus and what the next few months hold.
Below, find an edited transcript of our conversation:
Let’s start by talking about who our COVID patients at St. Tammany Parish Hospital are now.
The majority of COVID patients we’re seeing now are younger and unvaccinated. There have been one or two patients that have been vaccinated that came in sick but were not as sick as the unvaccinated patients. But the majority of patients in all age groups that took the vaccine seem to be well-protected. We’re not seeing outbreaks in nursing homes or institutions or places where the majority of people have been vaccinated, but we have had a significant shift in demographics to patients 60 and under.
And there’s an easy way to avoid that.
Right: vaccinations. Get vaccinated.
There are those, though, who are still concerned about vaccine side effects.
That’s an important point, particularly given recent headlines about the incidence of myocarditis or pericarditis (heart inflammation) after vaccination. But that’s extremely rare. These cases are primarily in younger males, usually under the age of 30 and most under the age of 20, and the majority of it is completely resolved within five to 10 days. A few people have been hospitalized. There have been one or two severe cases, but, again, this is an extremely rare event.
And, by the way, you can get myocarditis or pericarditis when you get COVID.
Also, speaking of side effects: The vaccine does not cause sterility. It does not cause birth defects. It does not cause long-term genetic dysfunction. Those are myths propagated by anti-vaxxers, and they’re just not true. There’s no substance to them.
Are you more worried about the long-term effects of COVID than you are about vaccine side effects?
Yes. Everything we do in life is a decision of benefit and risk. I think the benefit of taking the vaccine far exceeds the risk.
We’ve also seen recent headlines about the nasty new Delta variant of the virus. What kind of risk does that pose?
We’ve had several different variants, but one of the most recent ones is the Delta variant, which has been in the United States for some time. We think it’s only a matter of time before it becomes the primary variant in the United States because it spreads 50% to 60% more than other virus variants.
So what does the future hold?
I think we’re going to continue to see this virus evolve and we’re going to have outbreaks again. We may have an outbreak again in the fall. It’s been predicted. Coronaviruses are seasonal, and they tend to wane in the summer and come back in the winter. So, in places that have low vaccination rates, we think we’ll have outbreaks, and one of the areas that is of very much concern is the Southeast United States. Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama have very low vaccination rates, lower than 40%.
If we have another surge this fall, will it look like last year’s? Are we talking lockdown?
No, but I do think we’re going to have pockets of intense activity of the virus. I think among the vaccinated crowd, we’ll be fine. For those that have had COVID, they’ll also probably be protected. But for those who have not had COVID and who are not vaccinated, they’re taking a big risk by going unmasked in crowded situations.