The future of COVID: Vaccines are coming, but then what?

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Thursday, December 3, 2020

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The future of COVID: Vaccines are coming, but then what?

Mike Scott, mscott@stph.org

Even with vaccines, social distancing will likely be with us well into 2021. (Stock image)

Health experts have said it for months: The COVID pandemic will get worse before it gets better. And now, with the predicted winter surge seeing record numbers of Americans infected, those experts are, regrettably, being proven correct.  

But, as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn – and there’s a glimmer of light not too far in the distance.

According to Dr. Mike Hill, an infectious disease specialist at St. Tammany Health System, the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines should be in St. Tammany Parish before the end of the month, with front-line healthcare workers and nursing home residents being the first in line to receive it.

That first delivery will be as small as 300 doses, which, since a full course requires two doses taken three to four weeks apart, means relatively few people will be able to receive it at first. But by the end of January or early February, Hill predicted the general public could be able to start rolling up their sleeves to get theirs.

That would signal a game-changing new phase of the fight on COVID – and this time, the healthcare establishment would finally be on the offensive, after striking a defensive posture for more than 10 long, difficult months.

“It really is incredible,” Hill said. “Normally, vaccine development takes four to six years. We’ve done it in six months.”

In fact, there won’t likely be just one vaccine, Hill said. Soon enough, there could be several.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer’s vaccine, which is said to be 95% effective in clinical trials, is expected to be the first on the market. Moderna’s version, which is reported to be 94% effective, should follow soon after.

AstraZeneca has yet a third in development. Johnson & Johnson has a fourth.

While it’s unclear exactly how much it would cost to get a vaccine, Hill said that because the research has been underwritten by the federal government, he doesn’t expect it to cost patients much more than a flu vaccine, which can run about $50 – and, in some cases, doesn’t cost patients a dime out of pocket.

What’s also exciting is the groundbreaking science behind the new vaccines, he said.

Unlike vaccines for measles, mumps and other conditions that include live virus, the most promising COVID vaccines use a portion of the virus’ messenger RNA, or mRNA.

Consequently, Hill said, some people might experience side effects similar to those resulting from the flu vaccine – slight fever, headaches, mild muscle aches – but there’s no chance of catching the disease from the COVID vaccine.

“I would take the vaccine,” he said. “I believe they’re safe.”

That being said, because the research phase has been expedited in the interest of halting the spread of COVID as soon as possible, several questions remain, Hill said.

For example, the vaccines in development haven’t been tested in children, so that deserves further study. (STHS partner Ochsner Health is part of a trial for adolescents.) Also: How long will the vaccine be effective? Will we need to get it every year like a flu shot?

The jury’s still out.  

“I have more questions than answers at this point,” Hill said. “Things are happening quickly. We’re getting new information almost daily, but the vaccines are coming.”

The next questions on many people’s minds: When can we stop wearing masks everywhere we go? When can we start gathering in large groups again? When can we finally start getting back to our pre-COVID normal?

Well, that’ll take time and will require patience, Hill said.

Some 60% or 70% of the population will need to be vaccinated before we achieve herd immunity. Also, though, we’ll essentially need to vaccinate the world, or else COVID will just come back.

“So mask-wearing, handwashing, social distancing – that will continue well into the new year,” Hill said. “Vaccine distribution is going to take time.

“The good news is, we’re making extraordinary progress,” he added. “I think by fall 2021, we’ll finally be able to loosen things up again.”

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