Mardi Gras likely to bring COVID surge, data suggests

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Tuesday, February 9, 2021

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Mardi Gras likely to bring COVID surge, data suggests

Mike Scott, mscott@stph.org

There won’t be any parades this Mardi Gras, but those who insist on attending mass gatherings on Fat Tuesday can plan on catching something anyway. It just won’t be limited to beads and doubloons.

“We’ve seen it happen every holiday since the COVID-19 pandemic began: When people gather with others who aren’t in their household group, coronavirus infections spike,” said Dr. Mike Hill, infectious disease specialist at St. Tammany Health System. “And when infections spike, hospitalizations quickly follow suit.”

The data bears that out. 

St. Tammany Health System confirmed its first COVID case on March 13, 2020. Exactly one month later, it saw its inpatient numbers reach 44 COVID-positive cases. With the subsequent statewide lockdown, those numbers were soon brought under control; by June 2, STHS’s Covington hospital had only two COVID-positive inpatients.

But although the numbers stayed relatively low for the next few weeks, things changed around July 4 as lockdown-weary residents threw caution to the wind and gathered to celebrate the nation’s birthday. Within two weeks – roughly the amount of time it ordinarily takes for coronavirus symptoms to become problematic – STHS’s COVID inpatient count more than doubled from 14 to 29 cases.

With Mardi Gras approaching, public health officials are once more warning against mass gatherings, which reliably lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases. Instead, they recommend starting Lent a day early this year, or – failing that – driving with other members of your household past the many ‘house floats’ popping up around town. (Stock image)

It wouldn’t be the last time the area saw a holiday-related surge.

Between Halloween on Oct. 31 and Thanksgiving on Nov. 26, cases jumped from 12 to 25 cases.

Two weeks after Thanksgiving, they jumped again to 42. 

Within two weeks of Christmas, STHS’s inpatient count hit 62.

And two weeks after New Year’s Day, they were at 66 inpatient cases, which stands as the hospital’s high-water mark – so far. 

With each surge, of course, comes an increased strain on hospital services. And, although numbers are once more headed in the right direction – as of Tuesday (Feb. 9), St. Tammany Health System’s COVID inpatient count was at 33 – hospital leaders are bracing for the possibility of another spike in infections in the weeks after Mardi Gras.

If such a spike occurs, they say, they will be ready for it. Still, there’s hope all that preparation will be for naught given that most major Mardi Gras parades have been cancelled and with New Orleans shutting down bars for the extended Carnival weekend.

But that’s up to locals.    

“Our advice is simple this Mardi Gras: Celebrate safely,” Dr. Hill said. “Stay home or, if you’re going out to look at house floats, stay in the car with your household group. With vaccine distribution picking up, the light at the end of the tunnel is as bright as ever. Now’s not the time to let down our guard.”

*****

Find more information about COVID-19 in St. Tammany Parish, including daily case counts and vaccine availability, at StTammany.health/COVID19.

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